LIRR

Inside Track – Track Number Predictions

Inside Track – Track Number Predictions

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For trains departing NY’s Penn Station, the transit providers have a stated policy of releasing each train’s track number assignment “10-15 minutes prior” to the scheduled departure time. However, that is a guideline…not a guarantee. Some trains are announced just a few minutes in advance. Also, there are instances where the train number is known by the transit providers…but not shared with the commuters.

The Inside Track (Clever Commute’s premium service) changes all that. We use a proprietary algorithm to dynamically predict each track number before it is announced by the transit providers.

When you click-through on history icon (right-most column) for each train, you will see a page with 4 sections: (click to enlarge)

CleverCommuteEnhancedTrackPrediction

1. Date range selector – Our model is most accurate when it looks at the largest pool (e.g., 60-day) of   historical data.

2. Pie chart – historical track assignments for this train
(it will change as you adjust #1 above)

3. Prediction table – For a given track number, it shows
– Location: a list of tracks that this train has used in the selected time period. Our technology eliminates some tracks as options for this train on this day (e.g., Track 3).
– Occurs: the number of times that track has been used by this train
– Historical Percentage: that number expresses as a percent of the sample size
– Probability: the Clever Commute probability of that train being on a given track for this commute

4. Day-by-day track history – track assignment for this train over the selected period

 

Important things to note 

  • We continue to revise our technology, and the predictions will get better over time. Do not expect 100% accuracy.
  • The stats will change right up until the track is announced.  At that time, the announced track will be set to 100% Probability.
  • Often times, information about eliminated tracks can be just as helpful as the Probability
  • Adjacent tracks matter! One platform serves two tracks. So, feel free to take a peek down the stairs and get a 2-for-1 view!
  • It is your responsibility to be sure you are on the right train. Always verify and listen for official announcements.

 

 

 

How we help when there are LIRR “track changes at NY Penn” and NJT “single tracking”

How we help when there are LIRR “track changes at NY Penn” and NJT “single tracking”

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The problem: Some widespread transit issues can be identified purely by technology (e.g., when 30% of NJT trains are listed as “STAND BY”). However, other issues benefit from user input. When “the latter” happens, we need a way to quickly publish/share the info with interested commuters.

The solution: Clever Commute technology will now “listen” for keywords which indicate that a known large problem is happening. When it does, The Inside Track will then automatically send a message to it’s subscribers.

To be clear: We will still depend on commuters to be the primary source of this info. Somebody must post the first alert to identify when these situations happen. The innovation here is that ALL in-scope commuters are now guaranteed to be notified…according to their preferences (text vs e-mail, time-of-day, day-of-week, etc)

Two examples of where we are putting this to work:

1. LIRR Track number changes at NY’s Penn Station – Seasoned commuters know that LIRR NYP track number assignments are fairly predictable. It’s not exact…but there is a pattern…or a cluster…and the commuters have a feel for what to expect.
However, the absence of finding trains on normal tracks can be a sign of system-wide problems (the problem may be in progress or on the horizon).  At a minimum, “track changes” requires heightened awareness on the part of the commuter.

2. Single-tracking into NY’s Penn Station – This appears to be more of a NJ Transit phenomenon…but may happen elsewhere. The scenario is that some type of “blockage” means that only 1 of 2 tracks are available for travel (usually) into or out of the city. Undeniably, a single-track situation creates delays.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bad Commute on September 5, 2013 – chronology

Bad Commute on September 5, 2013 – chronology

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Signal problems were the stated cause of a bad commute on both NJ Transit and LIRR.

Oldest entries at the bottom [see “Published on” for the as-of time of this post]

Carrier Route Timestamp Comment
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Northeast Corridor Line 2013-09-05 18:37:02 The late 545 left penn approx 620 we just got to secaucus seats available (06:37 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Gladstone & Morristown Lines 2013-09-05 18:36:08 No problems at hoboken (06:36 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Main & Bergen County Lines 2013-09-05 18:35:19 629 still at sec. At 633. No word how long were waiting here (06:35 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Northeast Corridor Line 2013-09-05 18:29:08 601 from NWK left at 628. Seats available. (06:29 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Main & Bergen County Lines 2013-09-05 18:20:09 Hoboken not crowded. Seems best bet for main/Bergen riders (06:20 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Montclair-Boonton Line 2013-09-05 18:19:03 6.08 from NYP left at 6.15. NYP is packed, phone networks overloaded (06:19 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Montclair-Boonton Line 2013-09-05 18:16:03 Just got on the 6:27 from Hobokem. No cross-honoring on. PATH. (06:16 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Gladstone & Morristown Lines 2013-09-05 18:14:29 5:50 MTD Dover packed, still in station, no announcements (06:14 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Northeast Corridor Line 2013-09-05 18:14:08 5:41 NEC left about 30 mins late. Just arrived at sec (6:14 (06:14 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Montclair-Boonton Line 2013-09-05 18:14:02 Decamp cross honoring (06:14 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Northeast Corridor Line 2013-09-05 18:10:06 Trn 3171 NYP NEW BRUNSWICK track 10 (06:10 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) North Jersey Coast Line 2013-09-05 18:08:25 NEC rider validates what njt website says – delays of 20-30 out of NYP. Trains exiting Hoboken are fine. (06:08 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Northeast Corridor Line 2013-09-05 18:05:19 3867 semi express to Trenton still boarding at Nwk (6:04), has stop signal from east bound amtrak (06:05 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Northeast Corridor Line 2013-09-05 18:03:05 Apparent Signal prob in newark. All trains westbound stopped. (06:03 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Northeast Corridor Line 2013-09-05 17:59:02 5:23 south amboy just getting to newark (05:59 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Raritan Valley Line 2013-09-05 17:55:39 update-continued NYP is crowded with delayed trains. Hoboken is fine. Avoid trains which transfer at Newark due to crowds there (05:55 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) North Jersey Coast Line 2013-09-05 17:49:06 Signal problems, mechanical problems causing delays (05:49 PM)
DeCamp 33 & 66 2013-09-05 17:48:10 5:35 66x just arrived (05:48 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Northeast Corridor Line 2013-09-05 17:45:29 5:12 from NY just boarded. Doors closed. Train hasn’t left Penn. Its 5:39 (05:45 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) North Jersey Coast Line 2013-09-05 17:38:09 Chaos at Newark Penn Station (05:38 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Gladstone & Morristown Lines 2013-09-05 17:34:07 NJT Alerts says bus is xhonoring but buses in PABT aren’t. Say they haven’t heard from NJT (05:34 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Northeast Corridor Line 2013-09-05 17:33:03 4:54 to JA just reached Newark no seats available (05:33 PM)
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) Babylon Branch 2013-09-05 17:23:07 LIRR website says up to 20 min delays, all lines (05:23 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Main & Bergen County Lines 2013-09-05 17:18:07 Trains in hoboken are on schedule (05:18 PM)
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) Port Jefferson Branch 2013-09-05 16:59:08 Many cancellations and track changes at NYP (04:59 PM)
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) Port Jefferson Branch 2013-09-05 16:55:27 Major delays and cancellations – Signal problems on the Queens side of the tunnels (04:55 PM)
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) Ronkonkoma Branch 2013-09-05 16:50:24 Track changes at Penn. Looks like no 13 or 14 (04:50 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Pascack Valley Line 2013-09-05 16:33:23 Reconsider using NYP tonight. The next 5 trains on the board (NEC/NJCL) are all cancelled or delayed.  (04:33 PM)
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) Ronkonkoma Branch 2013-09-05 16:28:12 Eastbound LIRR delays this PM – signal issues on the Queens side of the East River. MTA estimates complete repairs by approx 6:15 PM (04:28 PM)
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) Ronkonkoma Branch 2013-09-05 16:20:26 Repairs will take 2 hours (04:20 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Gladstone & Morristown Lines 2013-09-05 16:13:10 LIRR has signal problems. NJT departureboard shows some delays/Standby.  (04:13 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Northeast Corridor Line 2013-09-05 16:13:03 Delays at NYP (04:13 PM)
NJ Transit Train (NJTT) Gladstone & Morristown Lines 2013-09-05 16:03:10 All trains at Penn Station on standby due to signal problems between Sunnyside Yard Queens and Penn St. Major crowding starting. (04:03 PM)
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) Port Washington Branch 2013-09-05 16:03:09 UPDATE: PW line WESTBOUND has the problem. No reported issue with EASTBOUND (04:03 PM)
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) Ronkonkoma Branch 2013-09-05 16:01:03 Problems brewing service suspended in and out of pen (04:01 PM)
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) Montauk Branch 2013-09-05 16:00:44 Problems brewing service suspended in and out of pen (04:00 PM)
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) Ronkonkoma Branch 2013-09-05 15:57:16 Service suspended between Jam and NYP – signal problems. Also suspended between Woodside and Penn on the Port Washington Branch (03:57 PM)
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) Babylon Branch 2013-09-05 15:54:08 Get ready for a crazy commute. Service suspended between Penn and Jamaica (03:54 PM)
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) Ronkonkoma Branch 2013-09-05 15:53:09 Lirr reporting Penn to Jamaica is suspended (03:53 PM)

2013 LIRR July 4 “get-away day” report

2013 LIRR July 4 “get-away day” report

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Since the holiday falls Thursday in 2013, this is already a relatively quiet week for commuting. But as always, we want to give you 3 things:

1. The official info from LIRR
2. A “look-back” at previous get-away days
3. Any other info you need to make this as easy as possible


1. The official info from LIRR 
  • There are additional trains from Penn on Wednesday afternoon
    Details can be found here
  • LIRR will operating on a Sunday/holiday schedule on the Fourth of July.
  • More info about fares and schedule can be found at the  LIRR website

 

2. A look-back
In 2012, get-away day was a Tuesday. The evening commute was fairly mild…with no major issues reported.

 

3. Noteworthy…
  • “Ticket lines” are one of the biggest complaints we see on get-away day.
    If you are at Penn tonight (or even tomorrow morning), then buy yours early
  • 2:00-3:00 PM is usually “the witching hour” …when things get crowded at the terminals
  • Heat –  The forecast is for 82 degrees at 2:00 PM
  • The trains are extra crowded…so bring a bottle of water.
If you have any other info you think would be helpful to know on “get-away”, then please let us know via our web site.

 

Thanks…and enjoy some time NOT commuting!

 

–Conductor Josh

Draft ‘Pledge’ outlines LIRR commitment for timely and accurate customer information and procedures during emergencies

Long late night (T-12)

Long late night (T-12)

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A Clever Commuter shared this message 12 minutes before NJT did.

Clever Commute [7:52 PM] – PJ service stalled – signals out east of NP

MTA [8:05 PM] – LIRR’s Port Jefferson Branch is experiencing 15 to 20 minute delays due to storm-related conditions. Service is temporarily suspended between Stonybrook and Port Jefferson